Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

Analysing U.S. Tariffs Using Game Theory: Single-Run vs. Multiple-Run Dynamics Trump’s tariff strategy—highlighted by his April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs—can be analysed through these lenses: Single-Run Perspective Setup: The U.S. imposes tariffs (e.g., 20% on most countries, 60% on China) as a one-time move to force immediate compliance on issues like trade deficits, border security, or drug trafficking. Payoff: If other countries concede quickly (e.g., Canada and Mexico tightening borders), the U.S. wins short-term gains. If they retaliate (e.g., China’s counter-tariffs), both sides lose via higher costs and disrupted trade. Ambiguity’s Role: Trump’s vague goals—calling tariffs “beautiful” without clear endgames—create uncertainty. Other countries don’t know if the tariffs are permanent or a bluff, making it harder to calculate their best response. This could push them to overreact (retaliate) or underreact (concede prematurely). Multiple-Run Perspective Se...

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed America’s reliance on foreign supply chains, with chip shortages grinding industries to a halt. His response? A tariff tsunami to bring tech production home, shrink the $1 Tn US trade deficit (2024), and fortify the US as a tech superpower. This isn’t just about trade—it’s about keeping your Nvidia and Apple shares safe from China’s reach while ensuring AI and chip supremacy.   The US Economy: Tech Gains, Portfolio Pains The US, with its $28.6 Tn GDP in 2024, is bracing for impact as tariffs ripple through tech-heavy sectors. IT Services: The $1.3 Tn IT industry faces pricier imported hardware—servers, AI gear, you name it. Growth, forecast at 5.8% annually through 2030, could stall as costs climb, hitting your SaaS and cloud bets. Telecom: 5G rollout slows as tariffs jack up costs for Chinese and Mexican components. Verizon and AT&T might lose $50 Bn yearly in productivity—check your telecom holdings. Stock Market & Mag 7: The “Magnific...

  The AI Threat to Indian IT Services: Can TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and HCLTech Keep Up with Accenture and IBM? The Indian IT services industry, a global powerhouse valued at $199 billion in FY24, has long been the backbone of digital transformation for enterprises worldwide. Giants like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, and HCLTech have thrived by offering cost-effective, workforce-driven solutions. However, a seismic shift is underway, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), and it’s not just a technological evolution—it’s a competitive threat. Industry leaders Accenture and IBM are setting the pace in the AI services space, leveraging bold strategies and substantial investments, while Indian IT firms scramble to adapt. With Accenture’s latest earnings report showing a 5.8% revenue dip in Q2 2025 amid US policy shifts, the stakes are higher than ever. Here’s how this battle is unfolding and what it means for the future. The AI Juggernauts: Accenture and IBM Lead the Ch...

The Four Horsemen of AI Warfare: Why Palantir, Axon, Cloudflare, and CrowdStrike Are Reshaping Global Security The future of warfare isn't coming; it's already here, and it's powered by artificial intelligence. Forget tanks and fighter jets – the real battleground is digital, and four companies are leading the charge: Palantir, Axon, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike. They're not just participating in the AI arms race; they're defining it. 1. Palantir: Owning the Intelligence Backbone Why it Matters: Palantir isn't just selling software; it's embedding its AI-powered platforms like Gotham and Foundry into the very fabric of military and intelligence operations. From Project Maven's battlefield intelligence to the Space Force's satellite analytics, Palantir is the architect of AI-driven decision-making in high-stakes environments. For the Enterprise and AI: Palantir's AIP is rapidly becoming the standard operating system for enterprise AI. It offers ...

Superloops Growth Strategy Analysis Superloop employs a balanced growth strategy combining organic expansion and strategic acquisitions, with current emphasis shifting toward organic scaling Growth Strategy Breakdown Strategy Type Components Examples/Evidence Impact Organic Growth (Primary Driver) - Customer acquisition (+62.6% YoY) - Market share gains (nbn up to 6.3%) - Product innovation (FTTP contracts, higher ARPU plans) - Wholesale partnerships (Origin, Leaptel)  - 37,000 net new Consumer customers in HY25 - 30.6% organic revenue growth - $20M marketing investment (FY22-FY23)  Accounts for ~70% of recent growth Inorganic Growth (Strategic Supplement) - Targeted acquisitions (Exetel, Uecomm) - Uecomm acquisition adds 2,000km fibre - Origin migration: 130k customers - Exetel synergies ($5M+/year)  Accelerates infrastructure/customer base growt...

Aussie Broadband H1FY25 Results: Business & Enterprise Growth Shines Aussie Broadband (ABB) has released its interim results for the first half of the 2025 financial year, showcasing a period of steady growth and strategic expansion. While the residential NBN business continues its upward trajectory, the real story lies in the impressive growth of the business and enterprise segments. Metric Result Significance Overall Revenue $588m (+7%) Steady growth EBIT 37% increase Significant improvement NBN Market Share 7.8% (target 10%) Shows Aussie's growing market presence Residential Revenue $327m (+15%) Core business remains strong Residential Gross Margin 31% (slight increase) Marginal improvement in profitability Business Segment Revenue $54m (+13%) Rapid growth in business segment Business Segment Customer Growth ~50% ...

Telstra's Dual Strategy: Investor Lens Telstra's first half FY25 results have delivered a strategic surprise that signals management's growing confidence in the company's financial strength. With a clean 6% increase in underlying earnings, Telstra has not only raised its dividend as expected but also announced a significant share buyback program. This dual approach to shareholder returns marks a new chapter for a telecommunications giant that has dramatically transformed recently. Segment Performance: Mobile Leads with World-Class Margins   Mobile dominance continues:  The Mobile division delivered 4% earnings growth, exceeding analyst expectations despite only four months of price increases and disruption from the 3G network shutdown. Why it matters:  With Mobile (>40% market share) accounting for over 60% of total EBITDA and maintaining an extraordinary 47% margin (among the highest globally), this segment remains Telstra's crown jewel. The division's abi...